One Gunshot Away

Welcome to the Middle East, a festering, bloody, unforgiving mess. Benazir Bhutto, age 54, a pro-Western, pro-democracy, secularist candidate for Prime Minister of Pakistan, was assassinated by a suicide bomber.

She served at this post in the late 1980’s, and again in 1993-1996 until she was forced into exile under charges of corruption. Her brothers and father had suffered similar fates.

Last October, President General Pervez Musharraf opened the door for her return. Under pressure from the United States, he issued a corruption amnesty which dismissed the charges against Bhutto. He reneged on his promise to let her run for re-election.

The Middle East experts speculated that Musharraf and Bhutto reached a private power-sharing agreement when Bhutto’s welcome home became deafening.

The Pakistani people lost patience with President Musharraf when he temporarily suspended the Constitution after unrest in the country teetered on anarchy. He jailed the lawyers who objected and sacked the judges who ruled against his action. Bhutto was placed under house arrest.

Bhutto, faithful to the democratic process, condemned these steps. Under pressure from the West and Pakistan’s seething intelligentsia, Musharraf rescinded his orders and stepped down as the head of the military.

The West exhaled as it appeared Pakistan’s precarious path toward democracy was again on track. Bhutto and her supporters were favored to win the majority in Parliament. The elections, scheduled for January 8, 2008 are now moot, as only one candidate, Musharraf, is still standing.

Musharraf’s grip on power is tenuous. His future depends on one man, General Ashfaq Kiyani, the leader of Pakistan’s military. Will the general support the status quo until Bhutto’s party finds a candidate to challenge Musharraf?

The West can only hope the General, in the tradition of Pakistan’s military, will remain neutral and be a calming influence. But there are no guarantees as the military and Pakistan’s Intelligence Service are riddled with Taliban supporters.

The death of Bhutto, a vocal opponent of the Taliban/al Qaeda entrenched in northern Pakistan, suggests the terrorists are responsible. But no one in the US State Department would stake their life on Musharraf’s innocence.

There is a lot at stake. If Musharraf, a US ally by day, is toppled, the Taliban could capture control of Pakistan and its nuclear armory. This is not out of the question, as 49% of the Pakistanis support these terrorists.

Although we’ve heard every US presidential candidate chirp about his/her solution, there is no solution—just a warning. Beware of the Middle East and secure the US’ energy independence without delay because global chaos is only one gunshot away.